Would you reduce how much you drive?

A surprising headline and sentiment for a connected insurance evangelist. I must first thank Todd Litman (Victoria Transport Policy Institute) for his robustly researched and densely argued paper of November ’25: ‘A New Traffic Safety Paradigm’. Hugely thought provoking.

The term coined by Todd is exposure. Defined as total vehicle travel as a risk factor. Reducing exposure reduces risk. And that necessary reduction must embrace diverse initiatives. The hypothesis starts from trends in Traffic fatalities:

By country:

A comparative trend:

Amongst those diverse initiatives is ‘Distance-Based Vehicle Insurance and Registration Fees’. To address the latter first, the UK government has promised a contentious 3p per mile tax for EVs, (1.5p for some hybrids) from 2028, as an addition to fuel tax on ICE vehicles. This will be based on an annual Odometer reading, with attendant vulnerabilities of that measure. One opportunity to save money for the insured. Adding usage (mileage) based

The combination – lower risk driver pays less per mile (let’s say 5p per mile), while the higher risk driver pays more (let’s say 20p) – would provide incentives to 1) Drive more safely and 2) Reduce exposure. It is also posited that this dual initiative can reduce crash casualties by some 10-20%. Incentives and mandates should increase uptake perhaps. Compelling stuff. I have picked out the initiatives where REDTAIL solutions can play a part:

REDTAIL offers connected technology and data insight to inform driver education and behaviour change. This helps Insurers to manage risk, drivers to understand consequences, and (as above) can have an ever greater impact on safety, costs and the environment. We have long espoused that time on the road affects risk.

Todd expresses thus: ‘Changes in per capita vehicle travel generally cause changes in per capita crash casualty rates’.

Fundamental of course are viable alternatives to vehicle travel for all. Some institutional aversion to travel reduction strategies can be offset by these initiatives being evolution rather than revolution, and therefore complementary to existing programmes. We also believe that reaping the benefits of connected technology and data insight is key to the future of traffic reduction, safety cost and the environment.